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How Big Is the Micro-Drama Market? 2024-2026 Figures, Sources and How Far to Trust Them

TWno1 Editorial · Published

Credits and specs follow TWno1's live billing settings. Last checked: 2026-10-05

China's broadcasting regulator said on September 17, 2026 that the country's micro-drama market passed RMB 100 billion in 2025.

Search for the same year and you will also find RMB 63.4bn, 67.79bn and roughly 90bn. Nobody necessarily got the math wrong. Those are forecasts made before the year closed, still circulating as if they were results. This piece sorts the figures into three buckets (China, overseas apps, global totals) and grades each one. High means official, or two independent sources agree. Medium means one credible source, or a relay of an official figure. Low means a single weak source, a practitioner blog, or a search snippet we could not open. Every page below was checked on 2026-10-05.

The short version

FigureWhat it measuresSourceConfidence
RMB 50.44bnChina, full year 2024, up 34.9%China Netcasting Services Association white paper, via two outletsHigh
Over RMB 100bnChina, full year 2025NRTA official at a State Council briefing, Sep 17, 2026High
RMB 120bnChina, 2026 forecastNetcasting Association report, Apr 2026, via People's DailyMedium
RMB 63.4bn / 67.79bn / ~90bnChina 2025, made before year endCaixin (Aug 2025) / iiMedia / unnamed industry sourcesLow
~US$2.98bnShort-drama app in-app revenue, 2025, up 115%Marketing Dive, Feb 20, 2026, relaying Sensor Tower (original data not opened)Medium
~US$750MShort-drama app in-app revenue, Q1 2026Sensor Tower's own report page (single source)Medium
US$11bnGlobal micro-drama revenue 2025, China includedOmdia, via press summariesMedium

If you need one line for a slide: RMB 50.44bn for 2024, "over RMB 100bn (official, published September 2026)" for 2025, and label every other 2025 figure as a forecast.

China: one solid year, one official claim, three stale forecasts

The 2024 figure is the most settled number in this whole field. The Netcasting Association put it at RMB 50.44bn, and one relay notes that this was the first time micro-dramas out-earned China's film box office (RMB 42.5bn). Caixin rounds it to RMB 50.5bn.

2025 is messier. Caixin's August 2025 piece quoted a projection of RMB 63.4bn. iiMedia forecast 67.79bn. Then both the Association's April 2026 report and the September 2026 government briefing said "over 100bn."

One check made us cautious. The Association's December 5, 2025 report put January-August 2025 domestic revenue at RMB 50bn. Run that pace for twelve months: 50 ÷ 8 × 12 = 75bn. Reaching 100bn means September through December alone had to bring in another 50bn, as much as the previous eight months combined. Maybe the year ended very strong. Maybe the two reports count different things; Caixin reported that free, ad-supported micro-dramas had already overtaken paid ones in market share by December 2024, so whether ad revenue is in or out matters a lot. That is our reading. Neither report explains the gap.

Practical advice: "from RMB 50.44bn in 2024 to over 100bn in 2025, per official figures" is fine. Do not divide one by the other and call it "the market doubled" as a fact. Nobody has published whether the two numbers use the same definition.

Users: somewhere between 660 million and 800 million-plus

  • 696 million: Association white paper, released November 11, 2025 (high).
  • About 700 million: a relay of NRTA data from July 2026.
  • 660 million: The Next Web, no date of measurement given.
  • Over 800 million: NRTA, September 17, 2026.

Write a range and date both ends. Time spent is the sharper number anyway: the Association says users watched 129 minutes of micro-drama a day in 2025, more than long-form video. The same report counted 625 key micro-dramas launched in 2025, up 30.21%.

For a single app, ByteDance's free Hongguo app has four data points: about 212 million monthly users in June 2025 (Caixin; the year is our inference from the article date), 236 million in September 2025 (QuestMobile data via Jiemian), about 300 million in February 2026 (QuestMobile via DataEye), and 168 million daily users in July 2026 (a Nomura note citing QuestMobile). One search summary printed that last figure as "3 billion." The Chinese original says 3亿, which is 300 million. Watch for that slip.

Overseas apps: Sensor Tower counts in-app purchases only

Sensor Tower is the default source for ReelShort, DramaBox and their peers. It tracks in-app purchases. It does not count ad revenue or payments made on the web. Putting its numbers next to China's "market size" compares two different things.

What it reports:

  • Q1 2025: about US$700M in in-app revenue, roughly 4x the US$178M of Q1 2024. 370 million downloads. The US alone was US$350M, or 49%.
  • Q1 2025 by app: ReelShort US$130M, DramaBox US$120M.
  • Q1 2026: about US$750M, with more than 850 million downloads (up 140%). DramaBox and ReelShort near US$140M each. Southeast Asia took 32% of downloads, Latin America 23%, India 22%. Average viewing reached 25 minutes a day by April 2026.
  • Full year 2025: about US$2.98bn, up 115%, per Marketing Dive's write-up of Sensor Tower data. That is a relayed figure and we did not open Sensor Tower's original data, so medium.

Two traps. Sensor Tower's 2026 page quotes a Q1 growth rate that does not match its own 2025 baseline; US$700M to US$750M is about 7%. We would not quote that rate until it is reconciled. And some summaries attribute the US$2.98bn to ReelShort alone. Marketing Dive's article describes it as the total for short-drama apps. ReelShort's own 2025 consumer spending, according to a secondhand relay, was about US$1.2bn, and we grade that low-to-medium.

Chinese companies' overseas revenue is a separate series: about US$1.525bn for January-August 2025, up 194.9%, per the Association. A Xinhua summary printed "$15.25 billion." Same digits, ten times too large. The NRTA also says Chinese micro-dramas reach more than 200 countries and regions and hold over 80% of the overseas market, but it has not published how that was measured.

Global totals that refuse to add up

Omdia's figures: US$11bn in global micro-drama revenue in 2025 including China, US$14bn forecast for 2026, about US$3bn outside China, more than 2.3 billion downloads in 2025. We could only read press summaries, so medium. Deloitte has a separate forecast of about US$7.8bn in in-app revenue for 2026; it measures something different, and we grade it low.

Now try to combine them with China's numbers. The Next Web converts the Association's 2026 China forecast of RMB 120bn to US$16.5bn. That single-country forecast is larger than Omdia's forecast for the whole world. The definitions clearly differ. So do not compute "China's share of the global market" by dividing one firm's number by another's.

"Over 90% AI" depends on the denominator

The NRTA said 430,000 micro-dramas were released in January-August 2026, 13 times the full-year 2025 count, and over 90% were made with AI. A Financial Times report using DataEye data counted 74,313 new AI series on Douyin in August 2026, 75.4% of that month's new titles. Another claim puts AI at about 70% of the daily top-100 chart by August.

All three can be true at once. One counts all releases, one counts new titles in one month, one counts a chart. The 13x jump also suggests, in our reading, that 2026 counts include very short AI comic-style series that 2025 counts did not.

Before you quote any micro-drama number

  1. Units. 亿 is 100 million. Two slips above: 300 million printed as 3 billion, and US$1.525bn printed as US$15.25bn.
  2. Scope. China, overseas apps and global are three markets. In-app revenue and total revenue are two measures.
  3. Date. A mid-year forecast is not a result.
  4. Denominator. "Share of what?" for every percentage.
  5. A second source. One blog or one snippet means grade it low, or leave it out.

Limits: questions these numbers cannot answer

  • Taiwan. We found no public figure for Taiwan's micro-drama market. A JPY 153bn forecast for Japan's 2026 market circulates in press releases, but we could not trace the original study, and "short drama" in Japan covers more than paid vertical apps. We do not use it.
  • Whether a given show makes money. On Douyin, about 221,900 new AI dramas launched in the first half of 2026; only 1,055 (about 0.48%) passed 100 million views, per the FT report. A Nomura note says about 1.3% reached the 50-million-view break-even point.
  • Primary documents. We read relays of the September briefing and of Omdia's release, not the originals. "High" grades the source's standing, not a table we inspected ourselves.
  • Anything from TWno1. TWno1 is a production tool, not a streaming app, and holds no market or viewership data of its own.

Related reading: Glasses, Hair and Wardrobe Continuity in AI Drama: Lessons From 244 Storyboard Frames; Vertical Drama Shot Length: Why We Aim for 2.5-4 Seconds and Cap Shots at 6; What Is an AI Short Drama? Definition, Workflow, and Real Error Rates.

FAQ

How big was China's micro-drama market in 2025?

China's NRTA said at a State Council Information Office briefing on September 17, 2026 that the 2025 micro-drama market exceeded RMB 100 billion. Figures of RMB 63.4bn, 67.79bn and about 90bn that still circulate were forecasts made before the year ended and should be labeled as forecasts.

What was the size of China's micro-drama market in 2024?

The China Netcasting Services Association's white paper put China's 2024 micro-drama market at RMB 50.44 billion, up 34.9% year on year. One relay reports it was the first year micro-dramas out-earned China's film box office, which was RMB 42.5 billion.

How much do overseas short-drama apps like ReelShort and DramaBox earn?

According to Marketing Dive's February 2026 report on Sensor Tower data, short-drama apps earned about US$2.98 billion in in-app revenue in 2025, up 115%. That is the total for all such apps, not ReelShort alone, and it excludes ad revenue and web payments. In Q1 2026, ReelShort and DramaBox each took about US$140 million.

How big is the global micro-drama market?

Research firm Omdia estimated global micro-drama revenue at US$11 billion in 2025, China included, with US$14 billion forecast for 2026 and about US$3 billion of the 2025 total coming from outside China. Only press summaries of the Omdia release could be read, and its definition differs from China's official figures.

How many people watch micro-dramas in China?

Estimates of China's micro-drama audience range from 660 million to over 800 million. The Netcasting Association's November 2025 white paper said 696 million; the NRTA said over 800 million in September 2026. Users spent 129 minutes a day on micro-dramas in 2025, according to the Association.

References

English · · #AI short drama

How Micro-Drama Apps Make Money: Coins, Ads, Subscriptions and the Paywall Episode

Western micro-drama apps usually give away the first 5-10 episodes, then charge in coins. How the three revenue models work, where the paywall sits, who keeps the money.

English · · #AI short drama #Tutorials

Shot Sizes in AI Short Drama: Rules From a 244-Frame Storyboard With 4 Wide Shots

In a 16-episode AI drama we reviewed, 235 of 244 storyboard frames showed a person and only 4 were wide or empty. Six countable shot-size rules and a camera-setup plan.

English · · #AI short drama #Tutorials

How Long Does a Mandarin Line Take? A Characters-to-Seconds Table for Short Drama

Mandarin runs about 5.18 syllables/s read aloud and 3.8-4.1 characters/s in conversation. A lookup table, the line + 0.5 s shot rule, and a 25-character cap.